I have to admit to a bit of a guilty pleasure of late. I’ve become every so slightly obsessed with the whole Tesla story. Its a really interesting phenonenom and one that offers so many fantastic insights (relevant to Passive House – so please stick with me, I’ll be as brief as I can). In particular, I just love watching the 0-60mph sprints and 1/4 mile drag races between the Tesla Model X and a range of the world’s fastest super cars. They’re all over Youtube, just go look. My favourite one is watching the Model X drag race a 1/4 mile against an Alfa Romeo 4C Spider. The wheeze is that the Model X happens to be towing another Alfa Romeo 4C Spider behind it on a trailer – and still wins comfortably. Okay, so the Model X isn’t exactly cheap but there’s a very simple dynamic at play here. For all-electric cars to be taken seriously in an automotive world that is dominated by a handful of global players it doesn’t just have to be as good or better than a conventional car. It has to completely whip its ass !
Now the petrol heads are spinning. The game is starting to change. If we dig a little deeper things get that little bit more interesting.
The first challenge that Tesla had was to establish the feasibility of the all-electric car which they did by building the Roadster model in 2008. It was very expensive and impractical. Tesla only produced 500 of these a year but here’s the twist. It had an incredibly influential effect in the global automotive industry. It prompted the development of the Leaf by Nissan and the Chevrolet Volt by GM.
Roll on to 2012 and we see the release of the Tesla Model S. This was touted as a mid-volume less expensive model. This is being produced at something in the region of 40,000 units a year. That’s some jump from 4 years ago.
And here’s where it just goes crazy. On the 31 March just gone Tesla launched their Model 3. This is going to be their high volume low price mass market model. Its been less than 2 months since the launch and there have been 400,000 pre-orders at €1,000 a pop if you live in Europe and €1,000 a pop if you live in the US. That’s a cool $400m at least. If you live in the UK & Ireland it will most likely be early 2018 before you will get to put your hands on it.
So why have 400,000 people parted with €1,000 to get in line for a car that won’t be on their driveway for at least 18 months. Do all these people want to save the planet by driving zero emission cars ? Some will but not all. Are they all geeks hooked on gizmos like the spooky autopilot function that Tesla have developed ? Same answer.
In fairness to Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, just 20 seconds into his speech at the launch of the Model 3 he jumped into explaining WHY Tesla develops electric cars;
“…..its very important to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport. This is really important for the future of the world”
The motives of the company are clear. However, I feel that the real reason for the success of Tesla has been its ability to communicate the performance of their cars, achieving a price point that makes it relevant to the mass market and developing a brand that people love. It just so happens that these cars are zero emission and can help combat climate change in the bargain.
Passive House is the Model 3 of the construction world ! Its performance is world leading. It totally whips the ass of any conventional building that complies with national standards. It can be delivered at the same price as conventional building. It helps to combat climate change – the UN have even recognised this Goddammit ! It even provides healthier living environments……..I could keep going but you get the idea.
However, its not selling like the Model 3 – just yet. Despite EU directives leading towards Near Zero Energy Buildings or NZEB by 2020 (equivalent to Passive House) almost every national legislature is resisting moving towards NZEB. For example, in the UK the House of Lords (imagine that) saved the directive from being kicked down the road by voting against the government.
Electric cars are a new techology causing disruptive change. Passive House, while effectively just a building performance standard, is causing disruptive change. They both are inducing a cycle of creative distruction. Many of the conventional standards and norms will die out in this cycle – just like the dinosaurs did – but with vested interests and resistance to change it will take time. However, with great marketing and branding the move to the Passive House standard could happen much much faster.
Or as Elon Musk put it……………………
